tennis strategy betting

Tennis betting strategies: games, sets, chasing, forks

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One of the most popular sports among professional bettors is tennis. Tennis bets are in demand for several reasons: high liquidity, daily major tournaments all around the world (Grand Slam, ATP/WTA), and high volatility (odds can change 5-10 points in just a couple of seconds). In the article below we will review some of the most effective tennis betting strategies.

Tennis bets at a bookmaker’s are different from bets on football and other popular sports in that you can bet on results of games, sets, and other outcomes.

tennis atp betting

The advantages of betting on tennis compared to other sports are obvious:

  • a tennis game cannot end in a draw;
  • it’s usually played individually, so everything depends on a particular player, not a team;
  • the judge’s influence on the outcome is minimal, so are chances of a judging error.
  • Moreover, for a long time already, video replays have been successfully used in cases of dispute; the most optimal sport for betting live.

You can make all types of tennis bets, including live ones, at Betfair, while also getting the best possible tennis odds.

Game based tennis strategy

Game based betting strategy is a variation of „chasing” — essentially the Martingale strategy, taken from the field of gambling into betting.

According to the rules of tennis, sets are divided into games, in which the turn to serve alternates: in the first game, the first player serves, in the second game — the second player serves, and so on. Game based strategy implies betting on the victory of the serving player. Statistically, players tend to win during their serves. Exceptions occur when obvious outsiders are matched with the tournament’s frontrunners. For the game strategy to work, one needs to understand the opponents’ levels. Thus, the most optimal choice would be a match between a solid average player and one of the tournament favorites. This way, the probability for the average player to win a couple of games while serving increases. That’s what you should bet on, while also making sure that the odds are not higher than 1.60.

The effectiveness of this game based strategy increases if you use it together with chasing. Here’s how this works: assume the bet for the serving player to win the game haven’t worked. In this case, you double the bet for the next serving of the same player — and continue to do so until the bet wins. After you win — you repeat the strategy.

Set based strategies

As you might know, at ATP and WTA tournaments, a match lasts until a player wins two sets. Set based strategies are used live, and you bet on the win in the third set. For this strategy to pay off, two conditions must be met: the players are of the same level (for example, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal), and the difference in odds of any of them winning at the beginning of the match is not more than 0.60.

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If the first set ends in a landslide victory for one of the players, bookmakers quickly change the odds: the payout rates for the winner of the first set are reduced, while the rates for the one who had lost are raised. If at the end of the first set the odds for a player to win is less than 1.15-1.20, you should bet against this player. If the rates start to rise and return to the way they were at the beginning of the match, you can bet on this player. To succeed with this strategy, you need to know the level of the opponents and their current physical condition.

Betting on the favorite

Strategies to bet on the favorite, e.g. the match winner, are used in tennis with odds of 1.45-1.65. First of all, you need to find matches where the opponents are obviously a favorite and an underdog. You can use the rates of leading bookmakers as a guide: this way, you can identify which players are sure to win their match. To increase the effectiveness while betting on the favorite, use it in combination with chasing which we have already discussed above.

Strategies for betting on the 40-40 game score

This strategy is suitable for those who like making live bets. To do this, we will need to find bookmakers who allow making bets on the 40:40 game score („Will the score be 40:40”), with „Yes” and „No” options. This means that a bettor needs to guess whether the game will have such a score or not. The 40-40 strategy can also be combined with chasing. If the bet haven’t won at one of the games while the particular player was serving, you should skip the next game and bet on the 40-40 game score again, on the same player’s serve. Considering that the odds for this kind of bets are quite high (2.50-4.00), you don’t even have to double the bet at first – but later, you will need to raise it by the initial amount.

Pay attention to the following nuances of 40-40 betting strategy:

  • The optimal range of coefficients – 1.70-2.30.
  • The ideal surface is clay, because it slows down the process, and the game can draw out enough for the score to become 40:40.
  • Online match monitoring, which allows you to determine the players’ current abilities, especially the receiver’s ability to counter the opponent’s serving.

Betting on the first point in a game

This strategy is only applied when playing the first point in a game. Both server and receiver are able to win the first point in a game. However, it’s usually the receiver who scores it. That’s why at a bookmaker’s the coefficient for the server is much higher in this case.

tennis first point betting

Study the players’ abilities and playing style: how often they win the first point in a game during their serve and the opponent’s serve. Betting on the first point in a game while also chasing it will be more risky, but there’s a possibility that the player you are betting on will sooner or later win the point while serving.

Correct score of the match

Everything is perfectly clear here: you need to guess the correct end score of the match. As you might know, the number of sets in tennis varies from 3 to 5 depending on the tournament — Grand Slam or Masters. To make the right bet on the correct score (2:0, 2:1, 3:0, 3:1, 3:2), you need to know the current physical condition of the players and the statistics of their performance on particular court surfaces, because most players generally perform differently on grass, clay, and asphalt.

Betting on total

Betting on total is one of the most popular betting strategies among professional bettors. You need to guess the number of games that will be played in a particular match. If players need to win at least two sets to win a match, the average number of games is 22, and if they need to win at least three sets, it’s 36. At the same time, for „fast” surfaces (grass, asphalt), totals are higher.

tennis grass betting

High coefficients

A bet is considered high if its value is 4.00 or above. Simple mathematical calculations will show that the probability of the player’s victory in this case is 25%. In other words, such a bet will win in one of four matches. However, long streaks of losses, up to 10 and more, are also possible. Therefore, betting on high coefficients is suitable for bettors with a significant amount of resources to spare — such bettors need to be prepared to last long-term. This way, even after several losses, a player using the chasing technique will sooner or later break even or even make a profit.

Other sure betting strategies for tennis

Using forks is betting on different players to win with different odds at different bookmakers.

Forks are effectively used in different sports, but it’s tennis where they are the most effective, because there are only two possible outcomes for any match. For example, let’s assume Roger Federer and Juan Martín del Potro are playing. One bookmaker has a coefficient of 1.65 for Federer to win, and another bookmaker has a coefficient for del Potro to win – 2.85.

This way, if you bet $300 on Federer to win at the first bookmaker, and, at the same time, $500 for his opponent to win at the other one, you will win $855 in the first case, and $825 in the second. In any case, the total money you earn will exceed the total money you bet.

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To successfully use the tennis betting strategies described above, you need to pay attention to several nuances:

  • physical shape of the players in this particular season (recent injuries, performance at international tournaments, current ATP/WTA ranking);
  • the results of their face-to-face meetings;
  • current physical and mental condition of the player during the match;
  • season schedule (the obvious frontrunner of a particular tournament might be saving strength for a more important upcoming one).

With the help of CopyBet, the first-of-its-kind automatic platform for copy betting, you can place bets using the most effective and profitable tennis betting strategy there is. CopyBet platform is integrated with BetFair — to start working with it, sign up and open an accout at a bookmaker’s.

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